It’s been 15 years since Saskatchewan voters last elected an NDP MP and as long since rural voters choose anyone other than a conservative.
(The latter observation is made with all due respect to the handful of rural area voters in Liberal Ralph Goodale’s riding and those around Meadow Lake lumped into the northern riding of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River).
Should we really expect much to change when Prime Minister Stephen Harper calls the vote this year? Well, not really.
Notwithstanding the obvious problems of an aging government far too focused on winning Ontario and maybe taking its rural Saskatchewan base for granted, it seems the Conservatives are still in far better shape than their political rivals.
Consider the evidence:
In today’s modern politics where campaign organization, money, support base and candidate continuity mean everything, the Conservatives simply have it all over the other parties.
Clearly, the Conservatives have long ago won the political donation war, affording them access to more political advertising and professional campaign organization. But what’s probably an even bigger advantage is having a stronger, active membership base at the local riding level.
That the Conservatives have deeper grassroots may surprise some, given the party has no provincial equivalent. But while there may be no official ties between Premier Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan Party and federal Conservatives, the personnel has often been interchangeable — especially in rural areas.
Moreover, NDP and Liberals grassroots have badly aged and weakened — especially in rural Saskatchewan. The Conservatives have been able to find younger replacements.
Of arguably even more value is candidate name recognition.
Despite losing veteran MPs like Yorkton-Melville’s Gary Breitkreuz, Saskatoon-Meewasin’s Maurice Vellacott and Souris-Moose Mountain’s Ed Kormanicki, there are plenty of Conservative incumbents including: Gerry Ritz (Battlefords-Lloydminster); Kelly Block (Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek); David Anderson (Cypress Hills-Grasslands); Rob Clarke (Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River); Tom Lukiwski (Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan); Randy Hoback (Prince Albert); Andrew Scheer (Regina-Qu’Appelle), and; Brad Trost (Saskatoon University).
Add to this, newcomers Randy Donauer (Saskatoon West) and Cathay Wagantall (Yorkton-Melville) and the Conservatives also have the most candidates in Saskatchewan.
The NDP are second with eight: Lon Borgerson (Prince Albert); Erin Weir (Regina-Lewvan); Nial Kuyek (Regina-Qu’Appelle); Trevor Peterson (Cypress Hills-Grasslands); Sheri Benson (Saskatoon West); Claire Card (Saskatoon-University); Scott Bell (Saskatoon-Grasswood), and; April Bourgeois (Regina-Wascana).
The Liberals have seven nominated candidates including: Marcel Isnana (Regina-Qu’Appelle); Tracy Muggli (Saskatoon-Grasswood); Lisa Abbott (Saskatoon West); Louis Browne (Regina-Lewvan); Perry Juttla (Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan); Lawrence Joseph (Desnethe-Missinippi-Chruchill River), and; Goodale in Regina-Wascana.
But what may count most is history.
Sure, there once was a tradition of Saskatchewan voters sending opposition MPs to Ottawa. Voters in this province seemed to simply enjoyed voting against that distant federal government. In the case of the Ross Thatcher Liberal government of the 1960s or the Grant Devine Progressives of the late 1980s, voters here have even been known to take out their provincial frustrations on the federal wing of a party.
But, again, the Saskatchewan Party has no official affiliation with the federal Conservatives. And if voters happen to view Stephen Harper as being like-minded on major issues with the popular Wall, that only works to Harper’s advantage.
Moreover, whatever Saskatchewan tradition there was of voting against the federal government has clearly been snapped by Harper’s last three federal campaigns here where his Conservative MPs have won 12 to 13 of the province’s 14 seats.
Would anyone be surprised if that happens again?
Rob Clarke might has a battle in the north, but with the Liberals running Joseph, a former Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations chief, a vote split is quite likely.
Goodale seems secure in Wascana and Erin Weir has shot in Regina Lewvan as does Sheri Benson in Saskatoon West.
But in the most of Saskatchewan — especially rural Saskatchewan — it should be easy sailing for Conservative candidates.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 22 years.
