It is that time of year when farmers sit at their desks and kitchen tables and hope they can divine the future in terms of what crops to plant in the spring, which will generate the best returns this fall.
The process is not a new one, although given all the technology at hand, and data at their fingertips, the process is probably now easier today than it was in the 1960s, or 1940s.
Certainly, 2020 would seem to be a year with a fair amount of cloud and fog rolling through the crystal ball making decisions just that little bit more difficult.
For some the question marks for spring are really the ones lingering from last fall. There are producers with crop still in the field and doing something with that once the snow goes will put added time pressure on producers who already face a squeeze in terms of a limited spring window.
Even if it’s not a case of removing leftover crop, the long, drawn out harvest meant many producers were not able to fall apply fertilizer, or do other pre-seeding preparatory work. That may well force some changes in cropping plans.
Then there are the vagaries of international markets. The marketplace for grains and oilseeds is always difficult to fully analyze with any long term clarity because weather and politics can change things almost overnight.
Global climate change may, or may not be a myth, but more severe weather does seems to be hitting around the world with greater frequency, and the more severe a storm, or drought, and the larger the area affected, the greater its impact on markets.
With Donald Trump facing impeachment proceeding as American president, rising tensions in the middle east, Vladimir Putin still stirring the pot from Russia, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stickhandling clumsily through that country’s withdraw from the European Union, there is as much political volatility as ever.
And, there are the cropping options themselves.
Prairie producers have been very reliant on canola in recent years as their go-to crop for maximum returns. However, clubroot is a disease issue that is not going away, and anytime rotations are pushed it tends to favour the emergence of pest and disease.
There are of course many cropping options, but past canola and wheat, they have all been relegated to near niche market status, which means too many producers opting for any one crop might signal a down turn in prices. As an example, one recent headline in farm media noted an expected increase in acres devoted to oats could signal a price decline.
So the questions are many, but as always, farmers will take something of a leap of faith, set a plan, and take the annual roll of the dice that is grain farming.
Calvin Daniels is Editor with Yorkton This Week.
