Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives are likely frustrated they aren’t pulling well ahead of Liberals, given recent developments in this federal election campaign.
It may be telling us something about what’s now wrong with modern-day politics.
As of the writing of this column, we are two weeks into the campaign. And while opinion polls show the Conservatives hold a massive lead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (the provinces seem to always be lumped together) they are showing Trudeau’s Liberals only two percentage points behind Scheer’s Conservatives.
Given recent developments, this is surprising.
About one week ago, images were revealed of a younger Justin Trudeau wearing blackface and brownface makeup — something that surely plays into the Conservative campaign aimed at Trudeau that has suggested “he’s not ready” and “he’s never been ready.”
Yet according to Poll Tracker, which takes into account the work of seven major polling companies, the Liberals have only dropped two percentage points while the Conservatives have only gained .4 per cent. The NDP are said to have gained 1.1 per and the Green Party .9 per cent — all within the margin or error and exactly a significant gain.
Perhaps it is a bit early to expect an instantaneous change. There is still another four weeks left in this campaign and the Conservatives are only beginning to roll out new negative ads with Trudeau’s image in blackface.
Moreover, polling in this cellphone/social media age is less reliable because it’s harder to get a cross section of voters.
But how this story is now playing out may speak to the divisiveness of today’s politics and how this may be changing the modern-day campaign.
If the Poll Tracker numbers are telling us anything, it’s that the Conservatives seem to be gaining the least from the Trudeau revelations — less than half of what the NDP and Greens appear to have gained.
Maybe it’s telling us that voters are remarkably forgiving for youthful indiscretions. But Trudeau was a 29-year-old teacher at the time, so it was hardly a youthful indiscretion.
Moreover, Trudeau’s personal approval rating has taken a severe hit over this. According to the same polls, Scheer has not soared past Trudeau as the most preferred leader. Yet Scheer’s Conservatives seem to have gained little. Why?
Well, it’s likely telling us that voters are entrenched in their views of the parties that they generally support and that they see other issues as larger priorities.
There are a lot of you out there that may be bothered by this. You likely should be. It’s a non-starter for anyone — and especially Liberals — to try to justify what Trudeau.
That said, it’s hard to single out staunch Liberals for having an irrational, unflinching view of Trudeau and Liberal policies when Conservatives and New Democrats pretty much take the same approach.
Parties that are only focused on “their issues” while not properly addressing other issues is a big problem in today’s politics.
For example, the Conservatives are clearing doing well in their western base because of their opposition to the carbon tax. And they do have a very strong argument that Trudeau’s version of the carbon tax won’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
But by not being more adamant in stating that Conservatives accept that globe warming is a manmade problem and by not promoting stronger policy positions to deal with this serious problem, it’s quite likely the Conservatives are driving away votes.
Those votes are being entrenched in other parties in the same way Trudeau’s unflinching, uncompromising pursuit of this carbon tax is likely solidified Conservative support.
It’s a big country where opinions and priorities do vary greatly.
But that today’s national parties can’t seem to string together solid, compromised national platforms is troubling.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 22 years.
